Overnight Returns Following 4 “Double Up” Days

In the subscriber section of Overnight Edges, I have both published a research paper and also created an educational video about the concept of “Double Days”. A Double Up Day is a day where ES both opens and closes above the level of yesterday’s close. If ES manages to close higher on Wednesday it will mark the 4th Double Up Day in a row. Below are results of a study I performed that examine other occurrences of 4 consecutive Double Up Days.

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The numbers here all appear to suggest a downside edge. To get a better idea of how the edge has played out over time I also produced a profit curve.

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The steady downslope is an encouraging sign for those considering a short position overnight. Of course, while I find this study to be appealing, I will also be taking other information into my trading decision tonight. Other information would include Odds Sheet readings and any EdgeFinder studies that may trigger.

 

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