Overview 4/17/16 An Overnight Where The Odds Did Not Play Out

Thursday saw mild declines for the market, but the overnight Odds appeared strong. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-17 O1

All 8 index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade. Seasonality was especially strong, and Price Action and Internals supported the idea of a long trade with moderate bullish Odds as well. The EdgeFinder was also supportive. So with what appeared to be a clear directional edge I decided to take a long position near the close.

I was filled at 2100.75. With recent volatility tight, I used the Loose Stop. I also set my target using the X Target amount. Unfortunately, despite the Odds favoring the long side, the market went the other way. News overseas put a scare into the futures and they took a tumble. I was stopped out at 6:14am when ES hit 2088.75 for a 12 point loss. Futures continued drop further from there and ES opened this morning with a hefty 17 point gap down.

Trades like this are reminders that we trade probabilities – not certainties. I’ll take a setup like this every time. And I’ll probably make money 2 out of 3 times. Unfortunately, this fell into the 1/3 category. So I’ll shake it off and await the next favorable setup.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/16/15

The market rose a bit on Wednesday, but the overnight evidence was pretty inconclusive. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-16 image1

NQ was along in meeting the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade. ES is what I trade and Odds there were all pretty close to breakeven. There was one bullish EdgeFinder study but the overall picture was just not terribly compelling. So I sat out.

As it turned out it was a good night to sit out, since Es gapped down 4.25 points this morning while NQ gapped down 14.50 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/15/15

Tuesday was a mixed and mild day for the market but an interesting setup for the overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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There was quite a bit of green on the screen as 6 of the 8 index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade. Unfortunately, this did not include either ES or SPY. ES is what I trade, so its Odds are those I pay closest attention to. I will sometimes take a trade when it just misses the min criteria if there is an abundance of bullish evidence elsewhere. The other index securities meeting their min criteria was encouraging, but there was nothing in the EdgeFinder suggesting an upside edge. And studies we looked at in the trading room were not terribly compelling for the ES bullish case. In fact one appeared somewhat bearish. So there simply was not a compelling enough story for me to take on an overnight position.

As it turned out the market did post some overnight gains. ES gapped up 4.25 points this morning while NQ gapped up 5.50 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/14/15

Monday was a mixed day for the market. It also brought about some mixed Odds, but there were some other challenges for me to deal with as well, which I will discuss briefly down below. First, a look at the closing Odds.

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Two of the four index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade. But ES was not one of them. Worse than not having the Odds, the hosting service for Overnight Edges suffered an outage about 20 minutes before the closing bell. So the Odds were not being posted. I was able to alert subscribers through email and on Twitter. The site came partially back online around 4pm and I was able to post to the Trade Discussion page that ES was not meeting the standard criteria but NQ was. In any case, with ES not likely to meet the min criteria, and me trading mostly blind while trying to fix the scripts and get the website back online, I indicated I would not be taking a trade.

I did not miss any great edge as ES gapped down 3.00 points at the open today. NQ gapped down 3.25 points.

We experienced some slowness on the website in 2012 due to hosting problems but were able to fix that. This is the first hosting issue that Overnight Edges has had since then. Still, it is disconcerting when it happens., and we are looking forward to soon moving over to the new InvestiQuant server environment. Apologies for any inconvenience on Monday.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/13/15

Last week was a dry week as far as compelling overnight evidence was concerned, and Friday was an appropriate finish, with little to base a trade on. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-13 image1

An all-white Odds Sheet means none of the securities we track met even the min criteria that I look for. ES is what I trade and its Averages were almost exactly breakeven. Additionally, the EdgeFinder came up blank. So it was an easy decision for me to just sit out.

As it turned out the ES gapped down 1.75 points this morning, so an overnight long position would have been a small loss.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/10/15

Thursday was another up day for the market but the overnight picture was again less than compelling. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-10 image1

An all-white Odds Sheet is typically a dead giveaway that I will not be taking a trade. It means none of the securities we track met even the min criteria that I look for. Additionally, the EdgeFinder came up blank. So it was an easy decision for me to just sit out.

As it turned out the ES gapped up 1.00 point this morning, so it really did not matter much what I did.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/9/15

The recent market consolidation is not doing much to generate strong overnight edges. Wednesday was no different. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-09 image1

The Odds Sheet was primarily white, with NQ the lone exception, as it barely met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a long trade. The EdgeFinder was blank but we examined a number of ideas in the trading room. They indicated the NQ trade was a bit risky, so most subscribers did not trade it (including me).

That turned out to be a good thing. ES gapped down 3.25 points this morning and NQ gapped down 7.00 points. It would help to see the market move out of its recent consolidation in order to generate strong edges again. Patience is importance in markets like this, and traders need to make sure they stick to their plan, rather than take marginal trades just to have some action.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/8/15

A late drop Tuesday turned a winning day into a loser for the major indices. But changes were mild and the market remains range-bound. The combination of Price Action, Internals, & Seasonality was not impressive. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-08 image1

DIA was alone in meeting the Overnight Edges standard minimum Odds for a possible trade. It suggested a long-side edge. But evidence elsewhere was lacking. ES is what I trade, and its Odds were just mildly above breakeven. Additionally, the EdgeFinder was blank. So it was an obvious decision for me to sit out.

The overnight action was fairly quiet and ES gapped up this morning 2.75 points. Perhaps this afternoon will be more interesting.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/7/15

Monday saw a big reversal from a bad start and the indices all finished higher. But it did not provide much of a hint for the overnight session. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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As I sometimes say, an all-white Odds Sheet is typically a dead giveaway that I won’t be doing an overnight trade. No highlighted Averages means that none of the index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long or short trade. Additionally, the EdgeFinder came up blank. So with no compelling edges, it was an easy decision to do nothing.

As it turned out the mild numbers were followed by a mild overnight. ES gapped up a mere 0.25 points to open the day. So whether someone took an overnight trade or night really did not matter last night.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 4/6/15

I took most of Thursday off, and unfortunately I neglected to get a screen grab of Wednesday’s Odds Sheet. It showed no strong edges anyway and there was no overnight trade Wednesday night. Thursday the decision NOT to trade was an even easier decision. I’ll discuss why shortly. First, a quick glance at the Odds Sheet as it stood near Thursday’s close.

2015-04-06 image1

The Odds were mostly near breakeven. But frankly I did not care what the Odds said on Thursday. My comment to subscribers on the noteboard of the Trade Discussion Room page was “With the employment report Friday and market closed until Monday, no way I trade tonight regardless of what the Odds/EdgeFinder show.”

The employment report did throw the market for a bit of a loop. After dropping over 20 points on Friday morning, futures re-opened Sunday night and worked their way back a little. The 9:30 NYSE open on Monday saw futures open with a 10.75 point gap down. So I was glad to have avoided that action.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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My Worst Beat of All Time

Tuesday saw a fairly sizable market selloff. But the overnight looked promising, especially from a seasonal standpoint. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-04-01 image1

All eight index securities we track me the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria for a possible long trade, and the edges were solid all around. The EdgeFinder showed some supporting studies that looked strong as well. In all, it looked like a favorable setup for a long overnight trade. So I decided to take it. As I indicated to subscribers, I would use the standard stop. But I planned on using the larger target because Seasonality numbers look so good. My ES trade was filled at 2060.75.

Unfortunately, what looked like a nice opportunity turned out to be the worst trade I have had since opening Overnight Edges in 2012. Below is a look at how the night played out.

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After selling off some early in the night, there appeared to be a liquidity event a few minutes before 9pm. ES, along with the other index futures, dropped sharply and instantly. This caused my stop to get blown through and cost me 5 points of slippage. That is far more slippage than I have ever had on an overnight trade. In ES it is rare to have any slippage. Typically I am filled right at my stop price. So it made a bad trade even worse.

On top of that, the market rebounded nicely after stopping me out. At the NYSE open this morning ES gapped down a mere 2 points. So those who trade with ETFs or who don’t use stops as tight as mine would have made out with a minimal loss. Unfortunately for me, my trade was the worst overnight I have ever had.

But even with it being the worst of all time, my Overnight Edges tracking account balance is still higher than it was a month ago, and at the end of 2014, and over the last year. All this did was wipe away most of the gains of my last 3 trades in March. And while that is disappointing, stuff happens sometimes. Bad stop outs and bad fills are just part of trading. Every gambler knows that bad beats are a part of gambling. And while some gamblers let it affect them, last night’s loss did not bother me. But I don’t consider myself a gambler. I consider myself a casino. I’m confident the odds remain in my favor and like all previous drawdowns, I’ll overcome this one in time as well.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/31/15

Monday was a strong day for the market, but it did not generate much for the overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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I’m going to keep the prose short today. NQ met the min criteria and saw its Averages appear in green. But nothing else did, including ES, which is what I trade. Additionally, there was no supporting evidence from the EdgeFinder or anything we examined in the room to suggest a substantial upside edge. So I sat out.

ES suffered a selloff during the night and opened this morning with a 7.75 point gap down.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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