Overnight Overview 11/26/14

Tuesday was quiet and mixed. And for the 1st time in a while the Odds Sheet showed a little color. Below is a look as it stood near the close.

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The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 index securities all showed strong enough Average Odds that they met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria and appeared highlighted in green. ES is what I trade, and its Odds were not quite there. Casting further doubt on a possible long trade were a few bearish EdgeFinder studies. So with evidence not clearly favorable, I sat out.

As it turned out it did not matter much. ES opened this morning with a small gap up of 0.25 points. There were some aggressive NQ traders in the room that indicated they were planning to take NQ overnight. NQ did a little better, gapping up 2.25 points at the 9:30 open on Wednesday.

Traders considering a trade tonight need to keep in mind that the US will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. With other markets open around the world, that adds a bit more risk to potential overnight trades. Good luck if you trade tonight, rest easy, and Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 11/25/14

Monday saw quiet gains in the market and unremarkable edges for the overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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A quick glance and the all-white Odds Sheet lets you know that none of the index securities we track were meeting the Overnight Edges stnadard min criteria for either a long or a short trade. ES is what I trade and its Averages were nearly breakeven with an Up Gap % of 50.35% and a Profit Factor of 1.01. The EdgeFinder gave mixed results as well. There were both bullish and bearish studies that appeared. Overall evidence simply was not consistent or compelling. Hence, no trade for me.

A back and forth night ended up going to the bulls as ES gapped up 2.75 points to open the day on Tuesday. NQ did even better with a 8.50 point gap up.

While overnight trading has been quiet for me lately, I do not expect that to persist much longer. There are some strong seasonal tendencies which are likely to assert themselves between now and the end of the year. When days register with decent Price Action and Internals Odds it could make for some strong trading opportunities. I will remain patient but ready to act.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview Catch-Up

Some quick catch-up from last week on the Odds Sheet. As I mentioned, I was away at the Las Vegas Traders Expo, and fell behind on these as I expected would likely happen. As it turned out it was a very quiet week for me from a trading standpoint. There was not a single day in which ES met the min criteria for either a long or a short trade. (This can be seen in that its Averages were never highlighted in green or orange, but always just plain white.) So I took no positions. Below I have copied the Odds Sheets from Tuesday, Thursday, & Friday afternoons. (Apologies I missed capturing Wednesday, but it showed breakeven Odds anyway.)

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With Thanksgiving on tap, I expect this week to be more interesting. Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Join Rob Hanna of Overnight Edges & Scott Andrews of Master the Gap for cocktails at the Vegas Traders Expo on Thursday

If you will be attending the Las Vegas Traders Expo this week, then please attend our social gathering for quantitative traders hosted by Scott Andrews and Rob Hanna.

 

This event is for both our clients and those interested in learning more about membership at Master the Gap, Closing Odds, or Overnight Edges.

 

Date: Thursday, November 20, 4:30 – 6:00 pm. 

Click here to learn more 

Overnight Overview Catch-Up 11/14 – 11/18

I need to do a little catch-up here with the posting of the Odds Sheets, so here we go. Not much emerged in the last few days with respect to strong edges, so I will run through these quickly.

First let’s look at the Odds Sheet from Thursday afternoon.

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All-white means nothing was meeting the min long or short criteria. There was no good reason for me to trade this, and I did not. It did not matter much either way, as ES opened Friday morning with a 2 point gap up.

Friday’s Odds Sheet looked very similar.

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Again it was all-white. The difference here was that the EdgeFinder provided mild downside hints. And I noted in my posting on the subscriber note board on the Trade Discussion Room page that ES Odds would weaken and could meet the min short criteria on a close >= 2039.25. If that occurred I was prepared to go short. But alas, ES missed triggering by 1 point. And it would have worked out well as ES gapped down 4.75 points to open the day on Monday.

Monday’s Odds Sheet finally showed a little bit of color.

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It wasn’t much though. Only NQ met the Overnight Edges standard min long criteria of an Up Gap % > 55% and a Profit Factor > 1.3. Since I trade ES, there was no trade here for me. ES Odds were very close to breakeven. But some NQ traders may have been able to take advantage as it gapped up 3.25 points this morning.

I will be traveling to the Las Vegas Traders Expo this week, so Overnight Overviews may be sketchy the next few days as well. Good luck if you trade, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/13/14

The quiet week continued on Wednesday, both for intraday traders and overnight traders. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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The all-white Odds Sheet is typically a dead giveaway that there is not much of an edge to be had for the overnight. It means that none of the major index securities we track were meeting the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria for a possible long or short trade. Additionally, our EdgeFinder tool failed to identify any studies showing a substantial directional edge. This left me (and I think everyone in the Overnight Edges Trade Discussion Room) sidelined Wednesday night.

Though there was some back-and-forth during the night, ES didn’t really accomplish anything and opened Thursday morning with a gap up of 0.50 points. NQ did a little better with a gap up of 5.25 points. It has been slow going for me the last week or so. Two things for overnight traders to keep in mind are 1) quiet, seemingly edgeless markets don’t last long and, 2) it is important not to lose patience and start taking trades with reward/risk profiles below your typical standards.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/12/14

Tuesday was a quiet day in the markets with many traders taking off for Veterans Day. It did not seem to provide much in the way of overnight edges either. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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NQ and QQQ Odds were the only ones that managed to meet the standard minimum criteria for a possible overnight trade. They suggested a longside edge. But going into the last few minutes this was not the case. In fact, ES was very near to meeting the minimum short criteria. As I noted on the notes widget on the Trade Discussion page, if it had closed at 2037.25 or higher than the short criteria would have been met. I indicated if that happened, I would look to sell short ES at the close. But a last-minute dip left ES only marginally bearish and NQ looking bullish. Therefore, I simply sat out.

The late dip was unfortunate, both for me as an ES trader, and anyone that might have used the NQ Odds to justify taking that long overnight. ES gapped down 8.50 points to open the day on Wednesday and NQ opened with a gap down of 14 points.

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/11/14

Solid gains were seen across the board on Monday, with some index securities gapping up and never filling. But as the close arrived, there was not much suggesting a strong overnight edge. Below is a look at the Odd Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Most of the Odds shown were very mild. ES was moderately negative for Price Action, but Seasonality and Internals were a little positive, leaving the Averages very close to breakeven. Only NQ met the min criteria for a possible trade (long in this case). The EdgeFinder had one study. It was formerly bearish, but had not exerted a bearish influence in a while. So with most of the Odds Sheet white, including ES, and the EdgeFinder lacking bang, there was really no decision to be made. I had nothing to do except sit out. More aggressive NQ traders took advantage of NQ’s favorable Odds – which just met the min criteria.

As it turned out ES put in a small gap up of 1.25 points on Tuesday morning while NQ gapped up 3.25 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/10/14

The market did little more than shrug on Friday and the major indices finished mixed. And for the most part, the overnight outlook was worthy of little more than a shrug also. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Most of the Odds shown were very mild. ES was moderately negative for Price Action and Seasonality, but Internals were a little positive, leaving the Averages very close to breakeven. Only NQ met the min criteria for a possible trade (long in this case). The EdgeFinder came up blank and offered no compelling evidence. So with most of the Odds Sheet white, including ES, and the EdgeFinder lacking and bang, there was really no decision to be made. I had nothing to do except sit out. More Aggressive NQ traders could have taken a long over the weekend.

As it turned out ES put in a small gap up of 2.25 points on Monday morning. NQ did even better, with a 9 point gap up.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/7/14

Thursday was a strong day for the market, as all the major indices saw gains. But it did not provide strong hints for the overnight.

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Odds across the board were pretty close to breakeven, and none of the index securities we track met the minimum criteria for a possible long or short trade. ES, like most of the others, saw week Price Action numbers, moderate Internals, and strong Seasonality. The EdgeFinder also came up blank. Not only were the Odds unappealing, but there was also the specter of the Employment Report this morning, which generally increases volatility and risk. So it was a no-brainer for me to sit this one out.

There was back and forth all night, both before and after the release of the employment report. In the end, ES gapped down this morning by a modest 1.50 points. NQ, on the other hand, gapped up 6.25 points. So breakeven Odds lead to a mixed overnight.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/6/14

Wednesday started strong but finished mixed. This led to mostly moderate Odds based on Overnight Edges criteria. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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The only Averages that were highlighted above were for NQ. And they met the min criteria by a very slim margin, with the Avg Profit Factor coming in at 1.31 (1.30 is the standard min). ES is what I trade, and its Odds were very close to breakeven, with an Average Up Gap % of 50.59% and in Average Profit Factor of 1.01. The EdgeFinder showed some studies that were mildly bearish. All in all, there just was not a high probability ES traded to be had. Therefore, I sat out.

As it turned out, whether I took a trade or not would not have mattered much either way. ES wiggled around quite a bit during the night, but opened at 9:30 AM this morning with a 0.25 point gap down. Aggressive NQ traders could have made a little bit of mine, as NQ opened Thursday with a gap up of 3.75 points. Overnight traders should keep in mind that tomorrow morning will feature the release of the employment report. While overnight returns on such nights have been hot lately, the volatility associated with this release does add risk to the equation.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.

Overnight Overview 11/5/14

Tuesday was a quiet day that saw the major indices pull back a bit as traders waited for election results to roll in. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Tuesday’s pre-election quietness did not produce any strong Odds, and the Odds Sheet appeared all white. All white means that nothing met the min long or min short criteria. The EdgeFinder was blank, so no directional edge was identified there either. I also noted in a tweet yesterday that mid-term election nights had shown volatile, but inconsistent, overnight returns. This added a layer of risk to any potential trade. So without a directional bias, but expecting a big overnight move, I was forced to sit on the sideline.

The market did not disappoint and after control in the senate flipped to the republicans ES rallied higher into the open on Wednesday. It gapped up 14.25 points to start the day, while NQ opened with a gap up of 31.00 points.

It will be interesting to see if the market can continue with its upward momentum throughout the day, or if it pulls back, and how that action could impact Odds for tonight.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

Overnight Edges was recently named one of the Top Trading Rooms by Dean Handley in Futures Truth Magazine!  Check out the full article here.

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.