Overnight Overview 8/31/15

Friday made for an interesting decision for me with regards to the overnight trade. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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As you can see, ES met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a long trade and had its Averages highlighted in green. But it was all alone. None of the other index securities confirmed and none of the stats on the roll-up at the top of the page confirmed either. Additionally, the EdgeFinder came up blank, and I could find no other confirming evidence of a strong bullish overnight edge. So I elected to pass on a trade.

As it turned out, that was a good decision. ES had a rough night and gapped down 16.25 points to open the day on Monday.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/17/15

Friday saw moderate gains for the market. It also led to moderate edges for the overnight. Below is the (new at InvestiQuant) Odds Sheet as it appeared near the close.

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NQ was the only security that saw its Averages strong enough to meet the min criteria for a possible long trade. ES actually pointed slightly bearish. Other evidence simply was not compelling enough to get me interested so I avoided taking on an overnight trade.

As it turned out that was fortunate. ES gapped down 9.00 points at the open on Monday.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overview Catch-Up 8/12 – 8/14/15

A little bit of catch-up on Overnight Overviews from the last few days. Interestingly, we have seen a similar looking Odds Sheet for much of the week. Below is how it looked Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday near the close.

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NQ kept showing a long-side edge while the rest of the index securities we track were more neutral. ES is what I trade, and it failed to generate substantially bullish Odds for any of the nights. Evidence from the EdgeFinder was neutral or moderately bullish each night. There was not a single night where the total picture was compelling enough for me to take a position.

For those that typically take a more aggressive approach it would have been a difficult week. NQ has gapped down every morning. In general I have found that taking a more aggressive approach to the overnight would have resulted in 1) greater total profits over the long run, but 2) typically larger drawdowns. Basically, more potential reward but with more potential risk. It is a trade-off all traders struggle with. Unfortunately, this week has seen the risks realized. Hopefully that will turn around shortly. Historically, it has.

Good luck if you take a trade over this weekend, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/11/15

Monday was a strong day for the market but the movement did not reflect very well for most of the overnight edges we saw. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Most of the Averages appeared without highlighting meaning they did not meet the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for either a long or a short trade. Additionally, the EdgeFinder was blank, providing no edge from the studies. With ES Odds so weak (pointing to a slight downside edge), I was not inclined to take a trade.

Of course some Aggressive traders may have seen the NQ Averages showing up in green and thought there was a decent edge there. But a look at the new OE Indices page, which will soon be replacing the Odds Sheet at InvetiQuant, provided a little bit of a warning.

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The roll-up stats along the top show average numbers when looking across all 8 index securities. Interestingly, Average Price Action was weak enough that it would have met the min short criteria, so that field showed up in orange.

And as it turned out the orange Price Action might have been a nice warning. The overnight was not a good one. ES gapped down 16.50 on Tuesday and NQ gapped down 20.25 points.

I’ll be back shortly with some more updates from this week.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/10/15

Last week finished with some selling, but the overnight evidence on Friday showed moderately bullish numbers. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Most of the Averages were not highlighted, as the Odds were moderate. But other than IWM, they all pointed slightly higher in terms of both Up Gap % and Profit Factor. NQ was the lone index security that met the min criteria and saw its Averages highlighted in green. The EdgeFinder provided some additional evidence studies there suggested an upside edge. With ES (my preferred trading vehicle) not meeting the min criteria I did not feel overall evidence was strong enough to compel me to take a position. Though some more aggressive NQ traders in the trading room did take NQ long over the weekend.

The more aggressive traders got paid nicely as the market had a strong gap up on Monday. ES gapped up 16.25 points and NQ a whopping 47.00 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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8/7/15 A Loser I Was Glad To Avoid

The market suffered some selling on Thursday, but the overnight odds showed some favorable numbers for the bulls. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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There was a lot of green appearing on the Odds Sheet as many of the index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade. This included ES, which is what I trade. A big reason for all the green was the strong seasonality. The positive seasonal numbers were largely due to the bullish performance that has persisted over the last few years on employment nights. But while they have been on a hot streak, the long-term performance is less consistent. What has been consistent is that employment nights generate extra volatility. So although ES and others met the min criteria, I did not like the setup enough to take on the extra risk associated with the employment report. Therefore, as I indicated I would do to subscribers, I sat out.

In this case my decision turned out to be the right one. ES gapped down this morning 4.25 points and NQ gapped down 12.50 points. So I was glad to avoid this potential loser.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/6/15

Wednesday we saw mild hints for an overnight edge, but nothing strongly compelling. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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NQ was the only index security we track that met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria and saw it Averages highlighted in green. And it barely made it with the Avg Profit Factor of 1.31 just above the minimum of 1.30. ES is what I trade. Its Averages straddled breakeven. The Profit Factor was especially weak thanks to Internals. Meanwhile, the EdgeFinder did not provide any strong hints in either direction. I know there were some aggressive traders in the trading room that took NQ overnight, but the overall case just wasn’t compelling enough for me.

As it turned out the mildly favorable NQ Odds played out and the market gapped up at the open. ES rose 2.75 points overnight and NQ managed an 8.50 point gain. So congrats to those that took NQ.

Friday morning is the employment report. Employment reports have seen favorable reaction a large majority of the time over the last 3 years, but they do add an element of risk versus a typical night.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/5/15

Tuesday was actually an interesting day to consider a long position for the overnight. Most interesting, is that the Odds Sheet did not show a strong edge. This can be seen below.

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An all-white Odds Sheet is typically a giveaway that I will not be taking an overnight position. The Averages were all pretty close to breakeven. But the EdgeFinder showed some compelling studies suggesting the Odds Sheet edge was understated. In the trading room we used the Overnight Edges Monster Tool Set to see how trades would have performed in the past with the combination of the compelling EdgeFinder setup and middle of the road Odds. The results were surprisingly bullish. So there was certainly a case to be made for a long overnight position. But with NOTHING meeting the min criteria, I could not bring myself to take a chance on an overnight trade.

That was too bad. More aggressive traders would have made out nicely, as the market was strong overnight and ES gapped up 15.25 points to open the day.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 8/4/15

Below is a look at how the Odds Sheet appeared on Monday near the close.

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NQ saw its Averages highlighted in green, which meant it met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade. But it was alone. ES is what I trade, and it came close. The min Average Profit Factor is 1.30, and it posted a 1.29. But it was not there, and the EdgeFinder evidence was not quite compelling enough to get me to take a long position overnight. So I sat out.

It did not matter much on Monday night. Tuesday opened with a small gap down of 0.50 points.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overview 8/3/15 – How I Pulled A 1-Point Win From A 2 Point Gap Down

Friday saw a good bit of evidence suggesting an overnight edge. First let’s take a look at the Odds Sheet as it appeared at the close on Friday.

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Odds appeared especially strong, as 7 of the 8 index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade and saw their Averages highlighted in green. This included ES, which is what I trade, as well as SPY, its ETF counterpart. Seasonality was especially strong and I sent out a special report to subscribers that examined it further. It also suggested Seasonality may have been even a little stronger than what is shown on the Odds Sheet. There were no bearish EdgeFinder studies. So with so much pointing to an upside edge I elected to take a long position over the weekend.

Within the research report I had a study that suggested 4pm might be a better entry time than my usual 4:15pm EST entry time. So I went long right near the NYSE bell. I was filled at 2097.75, which turned out to be a very favorable entry compared to the 2100.25 last trade at 4:15pm EST.

Price did not move a whole lot over the weekend. On Monday morning ES opened between the 4pm and 4:15 pm priced from Friday at 2098.25. I took my exit about 5 seconds before the opening bell and got a favorable fill once again at 2098.75. So despite the 2 point loss ES took overnight, my favorable entry and lucky exit allowed me to make 1 point on this trade. That is not a lot, but it is a winner and every little bit helps when you are growing your account.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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7/28/14 – A Decent Overnight Win

Below is a look at the Odds Sheet from 7/27. It is a preview of what the new InvestiQuant Odds Sheet will look like.

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DIA had some unusual readings, but most everything else was green, including ES, which is what I trade. Additionally, the EdgeFinder provided more supporting evidence. So I elected to go long at the close.

I was filled at 2064.50. ES had a good night and I had my target of 2070.00 hit before midnight for a nice 5.50 point gain. It was a good way to quickly get a win after a loss the night before.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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