Oh Those Summer Nights

Danny Zucco and Sandy loved the Summer Nights, but how have they played out for the market over the years?  Below I examine two time periods.  As you’ll see, the edge may be shifting.  First, let’s look at numbers from the summers of 2000 – 2012 (from the night of June 21st – the night of September 20th).

2015-06-23 Q1

As you can see, summer was not a great time for the overnight market during this period.  But the last two summers have been worth singing about.  Here are those stats.

2015-06-23 Q2

Gross overnight profits are 78% higher than gross overnight losses.  And the average night gained nearly 1.5 ES points (with the average winning night gaining over 5.5 ES points).  Below is a profit curve showing to see how the edge has played out the last 2 years.

2015-06-23 Q3

It’s too early to tell if the change in summer attitude is just temporary or whether it is likely to remain a while.  But if this summer is anything like the last two, then overnight traders may be getting’ some Summer Lovin’.

Overnight Overview 6/23/15

Monday saw solid market gains but the overnight picture was not terribly strong. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-23 O1

The Averages were mostly mildly bullish. YM and NQ met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade but nothing else did. And the EdgeFinder showed a study that warned of a possible downside edge. With evidence weak and mixed I elected to sit out.

As it turned out the market did manage to post some gains overnight, with ES gapping up 4.50 points and NQ rising 9.75 points between 4:15pm yesterday and 9:30am this morning. That is ok with me. I do not try and capture every overnight move – just the high probability ones. And Monday did not qualify.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 6/22/15

Friday saw the market sell off a bit, and overnight Odds turned out mildly bullish. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Three of the index securities we track posted Averages strong enough to meet the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria and have their Averages appear highlighted in green. But this did not include ES, which is what I trade. And with the EdgeFinder appearing blank, I was not inclined to get aggressive. Of course more aggressive NQ traders could have considered a long NQ position.

As it turned out the aggressive traders would have been paid handsomely. ES gapped up 17.25 points this morning while NQ saw a gap up of 37.75 points. I’m ok missing out when the Odds are not strong enough to meet my criteria.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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6/19/15 Overview – Selling Leading Up To The Bell Cost Me On This One

Thursday saw some strong Odds and some interesting studies come across my screen. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-19 image1

There was a lot of green and much of it was thanks to the very strong seasonal numbers. I sent out a special report breaking down the seasonality and price action a number of different ways. The bottom line was that the setup seemed to be solid, though not spectacular. Overall it appeared strong enough for me to take a long position overnight. So I did.

As it turned out this trade did not work out. I was fill long near the close at 2115.00. While my position was positive for much of the night and early morning, selling hit the market at 8:30am EST and it took my position from profitable to a loser. I exited near the 9:30am NYSE open for a loss of 4 points.

So this trade turned out disappointing, but I know that is bound to happen about 30% of the time. I’ll continue to play the odds and I expect that will allow me to continue to grow my account over time.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 6/15/15

Friday was a tough day for the market, as the major indices all closed lower. From an overnight standpoint there were some interesting numbers to consider. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-15 image1

The Overnight Edges standard minimum Odds for a possible long trade require an Avg Up Gap % of at least 55% and an Avg Profit Factor >= 1.30. ES barely met the Up Gap %, but missed the min Avg Profit Factor by 0.01. With other indices meeting the min criteria and seeing their Averages appear in green, I will sometimes override the minimum in a case like this. To do so, I like to see other solid evidence of an upside edge. But the EdgeFinder was blank and other evidence I examined in the trading room was a bit mixed. So I decided to stick with my standard criteria and I passed on taking a trade.

That turned out to be the right choice in this case, as ES had a tough weekend and gapped down 13.50 points to open the NYSE session on Monday morning. News out of Greece was a major reason for the gap down, and Greece could continue to keep the overnight interesting (and volatile) in the coming weeks.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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A Trade I Passed On & A Trade I Took This Past Week

I am getting caught up on recent overviews. Below are the 2 nights in the last week in which ES met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a long trade and saw its Averages appear in green.

2015-06-05 image1

Thursday 6/4 showed some pretty strong Odds. But I was hesitant to take a position, in large part due to the employment report looming on Friday morning prior to the open. Employment reports generally cause extra volatility. So I sat out. As it turned out that was a good thing since ES gapped down 5.75 points Friday morning.

Monday showed strong Odds, and it also showed some nice EdgeFinder studies. The Odds Sheet is below.

2015-06-09 image1

Most everything pointed to a bullish overnight edge, so I took a long position. My fill was not great, and neither was my exit. So while ES opened exactly flat from the Monday settlement price, I lost 0.75 points. A very small loss, but disappointing anyway. Of course that is part of trading. I trade probabilities, not certainties, so there are going to be losers along the way. But I’d take this setup every time and expect to make money on it over the long haul.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview Catch-Up from the Last Week

I was sick last week and traveling most of this week. So I fell way behind on the Overnight Overviews. Today is catch-up day. I had 1 trade this week and that was Monday night. I also passed on a setup that met the min criteria last Thursday – primarily because of Employment Report risk. I will cover those in the next post. Here are all the recent Odds Sheets in which I did NOT take a trade.

2015-06-03 image1

2015-06-04 image1

Note – I missed capturing the Odds Sheets from Friday 6/5 and Tuesday 6/9. If any subscriber happened to capture them, I will be happy to put them here.

2015-06-11 image1

2015-06-12 image1

I’ll be back shortly with an update on the nights that met the Overnight Edges min criteria.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 6/2/15

Monday saw a moderate bounce for the market and moderate reading for the Overnight Edges Odds. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-02 image1

As I have mentioned numerous times in the past, an all-white Odds Sheet means nothing met the Overnight Edges min criteria for a possible long or short trade. And it is a pretty good giveaway that I will not be trading. In addition to the all-white Odds Sheet, the EdgeFinder came up blank. So there was nothing compelling for me to base a trade on. Therefore, I did not take an overnight position.

It was a good night to be sidelined, anyway. ES gapped down 5.00 points and NQ 15.25 points at the 9:30 NYSE open on Tuesday.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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‘Live Analysis of the Opening Gap’ webinar Tuesday 6/2 9am

The IQ Team is hosting a ‘Live Analysis of the Opening Gap’ webinar this Tuesday, June 2 at 9am.

Click here to register and receive your pre-webinar materials.

During the webinar, Scott Andrews will:

  • Conduct 30 minutes of live analysis prepping for today’s trading focusing on the opening gap in 5 markets:
  • ES – S&P 500 Futures
  • TF – Russell 2000 Futures
  • QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF
  • AAPL – Apple
  • XLF – Financial Sector ETF
  • Demonstrate how easy it is to do your own end of day analysis for your favorite stocks and markets using our FREE database of over 3,000 symbols.

We look forward to seeing you Tuesday at 9am. 

 

Overnight Overview 6/1/15 – A Good Start To June

Last week finished on a down note for the market, but Friday’s action set up some very favorable bullish overnight edges. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-01 image1

Friday’s Odds were strong across the board. All the index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade and saw their averages appear in green. Additionally, I sent a special report to subscribers on Friday detailing some compelling studies. ES is what I trade and between Price Action, Internals, Seasonality, and the special report, everything pointed higher and the overall picture suggested a strong bullish overnight edge. So as I indicated I would do, I took a long position near the 4pm NYSE close. (One study in the special report suggested 4pm would likely provide a better entry than my typical 4:15.) I was filled at 2106.00. When Seasonality is strong I typically use the “X Target”. So I set up my exits using the Loose Stop and X Target. Below is a look at how the night played out.

2015-06-02 image1

It was a bit of a wild night as price moved back and forth. In the end, though the Odds played out nicely. The X Target was not reached but I did realize more than the standard target and exited my position shortly before the 9:30 NYSE open at 2113.50 for a 7.50 point gain.

Of course not all trades work out this well but by playing the Odds and only trading when there is a clear historical edge I have managed to grow my account over time.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 5/29/15

The recent choppy market action has kept strong overnight edges at bay. Thursday was no exception. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-05-29 image1

Thursday was the 2nd day in a row with an all-white Odds Sheet. All-white means nothing met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long or short trade. With the EdgeFinder also blank there just was not a good reason for me to take an overnight position. So I sat out once again.

That turned out to be the right decision as ES gapped down again – this time 3.50 points. NQ had an even more difficult night as it gapped down 10.50 points.

While action has been dull lately, tonight could bring about some interesting odds. I have already sent a special report to subscribers detailing why.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Get Overnight Overviews and other blog posts delivered via email - join the Overnight Edges mail list.