Thursday was a big down day for the market. And it led to strong Odds and a wild overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close on Thursday.
As you can see the Odds were very strong all around. Additionally, the EdgeFinder showed bullish studies. I also sent out a special report to subscribers that suggested the overnight probabilities could be even stronger than was shown here. So with Odds strong, and other evidence supporting, I elected to go long at the close.
I was filled at 1953.50 a few seconds before the close. My intention was to use the standard calculated stop of about 10 points and the X Target amount. I go for larger targets when the Seasonality Up Gap % comes in > 55%, which it did on Thursday. As I have noted a number of times, I am out of the office this week. So I was placing entries via my phone. So while I thought I had a stop in place at 1943.50, I did not.
When I got back to my computer later in the evening I noticed I should have been stopped out, but was not. I then decided to enter a stop and target at that point. My order entry error turned out in my favor, because after selling off 11.50 points after the close, ES rebounded all the way and opened the day with a 4.75 point gap up. I got out a few seconds before the open with a 5 point gain.
It was an unusual night. ES traders may have been stopped out, and probably were if they used the standard calculated stop. ETF traders, who are not able to use stops, would have made out with nice profits. Additionally, NQ traders would have made out well. NQ never reached its 27.40 point calculated stop, and it managed to gap up 17 points this morning. So I am sure experiences were mixed which is unusual.
I always report what happens to me. This time I got positive slippage from an entry error. Other times, like last Summer, I have had negative slippage. Stops outs that turn around and become profitable are also extremely unusual. The last one I can recall was nearly 2 years ago. (And I got stopped out near the low of the night on that one.)
Luck certainly plays a part in trading. But luck is more important over the short term than the long term. Over the long term, if you trade with an edge, use reasonable money management techniques, and take a consistent approach, luck will tend to even out and profits will have a good chance to accrue.
Enjoy your weekend, and rest easy!
New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.
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