Overnight Overview 7/22/15

Tuesday saw the market sell off a bit. The moves were not strong enough to generate compelling overnight evidence though. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the bell.

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The Odds Sheet was all-white – meaning none of the Averages met the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria for a long or short trade. (If they did they would have been highlighted in green or orange.) An all-white Odds Sheet is generally a dead giveaway that I won’t be trading. And with the EdgeFinder blank there really was nothing to get me to attempt an overnight position.

That turned out to be a good thing. AAPL’s disappointment led to some overnight selling. On Wednesday ES gapped down 11.00 points while NQ gapped down a whopping 71.00 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 7/20-7/21/15 (And What’s Important When Trading Is Slow)

The last two days have not generated strong Odds. Let’s first look at the Odds Sheet from Friday afternoon.

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The Dow securities were suggesting an upside edge, but nothing else was confirming. ES is what I trade and I was not seeing a compelling setup, so I sat out. As it turned out, ES gapped up 3 points Monday morning, so the Dow bias played out.

Monday afternoon also showed mostly mixed odds. Here is a look at that sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-07-21 image1

NQ was the lone security showing Odds strong enough to meet the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a long trade. Meanwhile, there were several EdgeFinder studies suggesting a short-side edge for ES. Again, with mixed evidence, I sat out.

ES fell victim to the EdgeFinder studies and gapped down 3.25 points this morning. NQ held up better and opened at breakeven.

I have had very few trades recently. This can sometimes be frustrating/boring as a trader. One thing I have learned over time is that it is important not to lower my trading standards out of boredom. If the market is not providing compelling setups, it simply is not in a state that reward/risk is very favorable. I am better off showing patience and waiting for substantial edges to emerge than I am taking on more risk in the hope of scraping out some low-probability gains.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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7/17/15 – A Small Win That I Passed On

Thursday saw the market generate some strong Odds for the overnight. This can be seen in the Odds Sheet below.

2015-07-17 image1

Most of the index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade. This was primarily due to strong seasonality. I detailed the Seasonality a bit more in a special report that was sent to subscribers. Based on that analysis, the numbers were likely not quite as strong as we saw on the Odds Sheet. It made for a difficult decision for me when considering whether to take a long position overnight. But with both Price Action & Internals showing bearish Up Gap %’s I decided to sit this one out.

As it turned out, the decision I agonized over mattered hardly at all. ES was pretty flat overnight. Those that took the long trade overnight saw a mild gap up of 0.75 points Friday morning. So profits were there for some. They just were not very large.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 7/16/15

Tuesday and Wednesday saw the market rally, but the Odds Sheet did not show strong numbers. Tuesday’s can be seen below.

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ES Odds were near breakeven, which kept me sidelined.

Wednesday I did not get a screen grab of the Odds Sheet, but it was all-white, with none of the index securities we track meeting the min criteria.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Recent Odds Sheets Review

The last few days have seen some strong market moves, but the Odds Sheet has not identified reliable setups, and I have sat out the volatile overnight sessions. Below are the last several Odds Sheets as they appeared on Overnight Edges.

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ES did not meet my standard minimum criteria for any of these days, so I was sidelined for the overnight action.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 7/6 & 7/7/15

The last two days have seen selling during the day that neglected to generate strong overnight edges. Below are the Odds Sheets from Thursday and Monday.

2015-07-06 image1

NQ met the min criteria on Thursday, but nothing else did. And with 0 supporting evidence, a 3-day weekend, and a Greek vote scheduled adding extra risk, it was an easy decision to sit out this one. It was fortunate, too since ES gapped down over 25 points when it opened Sunday night, and the price at Monday’s NYSE open was still 17.25 points below Thursday’s close.

Next is the Odds Sheet from Monday.

2015-07-07 image1

This is the new-look Odds Sheet that will go live on the InvestiQuant site very soon. Among the Averages, NQ was again the only one to meet the min criteria. ES was close, but not quite there. Even with a bullish EdgeFinder it was not enough to compel me to take a trade.

After a run-up during the night, ES reversed course. When the NYSE opened it was with a gap down of 1 point for ES.

Good luck if you trade tonight and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 7/2/15

Wednesday was a strong day for the market, but the Odds Sheet numbers were a little weak.

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While the Odds were mostly bullish, only SPY met the Overnight Edges Standard min criteria and saw its Averages appear in green. ES and NQ were extremely close, but just missed. But with Thursday’s employment report release there was extra risk inherent. So I was not inclined to take a borderline setup.

As it turned out the market did manage some gains Wednesday night and opened up Thursday morning with a 3.75 point gap up.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 7/1/15 – A Missed Opportunity

Tuesday was a missed opportunity on my part. The Odds came out strong, and I sent a special report to subscribers suggesting a good chance of a bullish overnight as well. The Odds Sheer can be seen below.

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Despite the strong Odds, some late evidence I reviewed caused me to 2nd guess my initial long inclination and I decided to sit out on Tuesday night.

That was a mistake as ES enjoyed a large gap up Wednesday morning of 17.25 points. Had I taken the trade I would have even achieved my 17.75 point X Target. Unfortunately I missed out on this one. Fortunately, some subscribers that were more aggressive than I did manage to take advantage of the strong move.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 6/30 – A Nice Easy Overnight Win

Monday’s Odds appeared strong as can be seen on the Odds Sheet below.

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Six of the eight index securities we track met the min criteria, including ES, which is what I trade. With the EdgeFinder also providing confirming evidence, I elected to go long near the close and use a standard target and a stop in between “Standard” and “Loose”. I was filled long just before the close at 2051.25. My 6.25 point target was hit around 2:30am EST and I was filled at 2057.50 for a nice, easy win.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview Catch-Up 6/24 – 6/29

Posting a little catch-up history here for the Overnight Overviews. Below are the Odds Sheets from 6/23 & 6/25.

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Neither of these nights showed attractive Odds and I did not trade. June 24th and June 26th Odds Sheets I neglected to get a screen-grab of. But the 24th showed ES Avg Up Gap % of 57.88% and a Avg Profit Factor of 1.22. This Avg Profit Factor is too low and I did not take a trade that night. On the 26th Odds were near breakeven with an Avg Up Gap % of 52.19% and an Avg Profit Factor of 0.99. So I did not trade that night either.

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Oh Those Summer Nights

Danny Zucco and Sandy loved the Summer Nights, but how have they played out for the market over the years?  Below I examine two time periods.  As you’ll see, the edge may be shifting.  First, let’s look at numbers from the summers of 2000 – 2012 (from the night of June 21st – the night of September 20th).

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As you can see, summer was not a great time for the overnight market during this period.  But the last two summers have been worth singing about.  Here are those stats.

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Gross overnight profits are 78% higher than gross overnight losses.  And the average night gained nearly 1.5 ES points (with the average winning night gaining over 5.5 ES points).  Below is a profit curve showing to see how the edge has played out the last 2 years.

2015-06-23 Q3

It’s too early to tell if the change in summer attitude is just temporary or whether it is likely to remain a while.  But if this summer is anything like the last two, then overnight traders may be getting’ some Summer Lovin’.

Overnight Overview 6/23/15

Monday saw solid market gains but the overnight picture was not terribly strong. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-06-23 O1

The Averages were mostly mildly bullish. YM and NQ met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade but nothing else did. And the EdgeFinder showed a study that warned of a possible downside edge. With evidence weak and mixed I elected to sit out.

As it turned out the market did manage to post some gains overnight, with ES gapping up 4.50 points and NQ rising 9.75 points between 4:15pm yesterday and 9:30am this morning. That is ok with me. I do not try and capture every overnight move – just the high probability ones. And Monday did not qualify.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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