Overnight Overview 3/30/15

Friday saw moderate gains for the market and moderate numbers for the overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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An all-white Odds Sheet means that nothing met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long or short trade. When that happens it is pretty much a sure thing that I will not be taking an overnight trade. It would take some extremely compelling evidence or unusual circumstances for me to do so. And there was no other compelling evidence that I saw. The EdgeFinder came up blank. I sat out as I indicated to subscribers that I would do.

Comments on Sunday by China’s central bank chief got futures markets excited and we saw a gap up on Monday morning. ES opened up 12.50 points and NQ opened up 24.25 points. Action could be strong today following the somewhat large overnight move. It will be interesting to see how that translates for edges as we approach the close today.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 5/27/15

Thursday was a day of mild declines. It did generate some edges to consider. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Most of the index securities we track showed moderate Odds. NQ and QQQ did meet the min criteria though and saw their Averages show up in green. ES is my primary trading vehicle for the overnight, so if it does not meet the min criteria, I need to see some pretty convincing evidence otherwise to get me to take a trade. The EdgeFinder did show some strongly bullish studies. But the EdgeFinder/NQ combo just wasn’t quite enough to get me to pull the trigger. So I sat out.

More aggressive traders would have seen an interesting and volatile overnight. Both NQ and ES traded high enough during the night where traders using the Overnight Edges standard calculated targets (as shown on the Odds Sheet), would have seen their targets reached and a nice profit realized. But the market did not manage to hold onto those gains. ES opened down 2.00 points this morning and NQ gapped down 5.25 points. So traders that did not use targets likely ended up with small losses.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/26/15

Wednesday the market experienced some strong selling. This volatile action generated some interesting overnight edges to consider. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close on Wednesday.

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Half of the index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade and saw their Averages highlighted in green. Of course ES is what I pay closest attention to because that is my primary trading security. Its Averages were only modestly bullish. NQ is the security that tends to meet the Overnight Edges standard minimum long criteria more than any other, and it also failed to do so on Wednesday. The EdgeFinder did identify a few compelling bullish studies. But despite the decent amount of green Averages and the bullish EdgeFinder studies, I was not truly tempted to take on an overnight trade. Price Action in ES was showing what I often refer to as “dangerous” Odds. The Up Gap % was quite high, but the profit factor was near breakeven. And NQ showed similar stats. These stats suggest that while there may be a good chance of a gap up, times when the market has gapped down it has done so much more violently. Reward/risk in these cases is somewhat low. It is a situation that I generally try and avoid, so as I indicated to subscribers, I elected to sit out on Wednesday.

As it turned out, that was a very good thing. Both ES and NQ gapped down substantially to start the day. ES opened with in 8.75 point gap down at 9:30 AM EST. But my loss would have been even worse than that if I traded it, because ES dropped over 20 points during the night before rebounding to only gap down 8.75. Therefore, it would have blown through both the 14 point standard stop and the 18.40 point loose stop that were calculated on the spreadsheet. So though the EdgeFinder provided some indications of a bullish edge, the Odds Sheet allowed me to identify the danger and avoid any overnight damage.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/25/14

Tuesday was another down day in the market. The overnight did show some interesting numbers as we approached the close. Below is a look at yesterday’s Odds Sheet.

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Half of the index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade and saw their Averages highlighted in green. Of course ES is what I pay closest attention to because that is my primary trading security. Its Averages were only modestly bullish. The EdgeFinder did not offer any help, either, since it came up blank. I noted on the Trade Discussion Room noteboard that NQ could be an option for aggressive traders, but the evidence was not strong enough for me to take a position.

As it turned out the night led to a small rise this morning. ES gapped up 1.25 points and NQ gapped up 3.00 points. I won’t catch them all, and I am perfectly happy to sit out times when the directional edge is not strongly favorable.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/24/15

Monday saw some late selling turn the major indices moderately negative. From an overnight standpoint, there were some edges to consider. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Three of the eight index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade. ES is my primary trading vehicle, and its Odds are the ones I pay closest attention to. Price Action, Internals, & Seasonality were all just modestly bullish for ES. And the EdgeFinder did not provide any compelling evidence. So I sat out.

Some more Aggressive traders in the room did take NQ. In addition to meeting the min criteria, we did identify 1 compelling study in the room suggesting an upside edge for NQ.

It was a back and forth night for the market. In the end people would have been right to be conservative with ES and/or aggressive with NQ. ES “gapped” down 0.25 points at 9:30am EST while NQ gapped up 3.50 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/23/15

Friday was a strong day for the market, but it led to mixed edges for the overnight. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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NQ and QQQ were the 2 securities on the Odds Sheet that met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long trade and saw their Averages appear highlighted in green. ES is what I trade, and its Odds appeared near breakeven. Additionally, the EdgeFinder showed one study, and it suggested bearish implications. So there was not a clear, compelling case to be made for either bulls or bears. So as I do in such circumstances, I sat out.

It did not matter much either way. ES gapped up 1.00 point this morning and NQ gapped down 0.25 points. So there was very little to be made or lost in either direction.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Despite Flubbing My Entry & Exit Thursday Night Turned Out Well

Thursday saw quiet, range-bound trading with mixed results for the market. But the Odds Sheet on Thursday showed some very strong numbers for the overnight. Here is a screen shot of it.

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Seven of the eight index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a long trade and saw their Averages show up in green. This included ES, which is what I primarily trade. ES Odds were strong across the board, and the strength was confirmed by some studies I included in a special report to subscribers. So I indicated I was going to go long at the close.

I was on the road, though. So I entered my order a little differently than usual and messed up when I set my stop and target levels. This caused my order to fill at 2081.50 and sell 1 second later at 2081.25. And I could not get another buy completed before the bell rang. So I waited until futures re-opened at 4:30 and was filled at 2082.00.

With Seasonality strong I used the larger “X Target” and used my Std Stop as calculated on the Odds Sheet. The night was good and ES gapped up 11.75 points at the open this morning. Neither my stop nor target were reached and I exited a few seconds before the NYSE open.  With my poor entry and a bad fill on the exit I netted about 10 points. It still turned out to be a nice win and put the Overnight Edges Tracking Account at a new high.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/19/16

Wednesday was a strong day for the market but it did not generate anything in the way of strong overnight edges. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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An all-white Odds Sheet means that nothing we track met the Overnight Edges standard min criteria for a possible long or short trade. Odds were near breakeven all around. When Odds are not favorable, then I don’t put my capital at risk. So as I indicated I would do on the Trade Discussion Room notepad, I sat out.

That turned out to be a good thing, too since ES gapped down 6.00 points to open the day.

Thursday night brought about much more favorable Odds, and a trade from me. I will discuss that in the next post…

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overviews for 3/17 & 3/18/15

Here are quick overviews of the last 2 nights. First Monday’s Odds Sheet…

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NQ was alone on Monday suggesting an upside edge, and other evidence was weak. With ES not meeting the Overnight Edges standard min criteria and nothing else strongly compelling me to trade, I elected to sit this one out.

It was a fortunate decision as ES gapped down 4.75 points.

Tuesday was a little closer call for me. Here is a look at the Odds Sheet.

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Five of the eight index securities we track met the min criteria for a possible long trade. ES was not one of them. But I produced a special report for subscribers that took a detailed look at Fed Day implications. Based on that I would have taken a long trade if the market closed down a bit more, but the afternoon rally eliminated the chance of me taking a long position. So I again sat out.

And that again turned out to be a good thing, as ES gapped down 6.25 points at the open this morning.

This afternoon could be interesting as the Fed announces. We’ll see it that translates to an overnight edge.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview 3/16/15

Friday was a tough day for the market, but the overnight outlook was a bit muted. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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Half of the index securities we track me the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria for a possible long trade and saw their Averages highlighted in green. But ES, which is my primary trading vehicle, was not one of them. And while the NASDAQ and Dow showed solid Odds, the EdgeFinder did have 1 mildly bearish study, and no bullish studies appeared. So with evidence questionable, I sat this one out.

As it turned out the moderately bullish Odds played out and the market gapped up strongly this morning. ES gapped up 11.75 points and NQ gapped up 22.25 points.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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Overnight Overview – 3/13/15

Thursday saw a strong bounce during the day, but overnight edges were not impressive. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

2015-03-13 image1

An all-white Odds Sheet means none of the index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard minimum Odds for a possible long or short trade. Additionally, the EdgeFinder came up blank. In other words, there was no compelling directional overnight bias. Therefore, it was an easy decision for me to simply sit this one out.

As it turned out there was not much of a gap on Friday morning. ES gapped down 1.75 points from Thursday’s close while NQ gapped down just 0.25 points.

Good luck if you trade this weekend, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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3/12/15 – A Strong Setup Leads to the 2nd Win in 2 Nights

Wednesday was a mixed day for the major indices. But even with moderate action, the overnight Odds looked very strong. Below is a look at the Odds Sheet as it stood near the close.

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There was a fair amount of green on the screen as 5 of the 8 index securities we track met the Overnight Edges standard minimum criteria for a possible long trade. ES is what I trade and its Odds are the ones I pay most attention to. Odds there were strong. Additionally, the EdgeFinder showed several compelling studies suggesting a bullish overnight edge. With so much pointing up, it was an easy decision for me to take a long trade overnight.

I was filled at 2039.75 and used the Std Stop and Target as calculated and shown on the Odds Sheet. Below is a look at how the night played out.

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My target of 2046.00 was hit just before 3am, making it the 2nd night in a row that ES provided a nice, easy win. After hitting my target, price chopped back and forth. At 9:30 ES opened at 2047.00.

The Odds have played out well the last 2 nights. Of course it is not always that easy, and I have to endure losing trades and drawdowns as well. But by examining historical data and making informed decisions I have been able to grow my account nicely over time. And with the gains so far this week, the Overnight Edges Tracking Account is again posting new all-time highs.

Good luck if you trade tonight, and rest easy!

 

 

New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

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